In the month of June, 2026, the Arabica Coffee “C” futures market (New York ICE) showed mixed signals in terms of prices. At the beginning of June, July Arabica futures (KCN26) was trading at 262.75 cents/lb. within a week the prices plummeted to 246.50 cents/lb, which was a weekly decline of 7.2%. The week that followed saw the drop in prices continue to trade at 242.70 cents/lb. However, as the month progressed, the prices started to stabilize as more buyers returned to the market.

On 23rd June, 2023, September 2026 Arabica contract (KCU26) had gained market value, trading at 275.95 cents/lb. This was a significant market improvement of 3.35%.

The major reason that caused the decline in the June prices was due to the expected improved supply from the Brazilian market. The United States Department of Agriculture projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at approximately 71.9 million bags, an increase of about 14% year-on-year. Arabica production was forecast at around 47.5 million bags, about 25% higher than the previous season. This is an indicator to the coffee markets. In the month of June, the weather conditions in Brazil remained dry. This is the perfect weather for harvesting the Brazilian Arabica coffee; though the markets remained cautions considering any change in the future weather could affect the quality of the coffee and production cycle. The impending El Niño rains’ risks prevented further price fall in the month of June.

Although the month of June has seen Nairobi Coffee Exchange take a recess, the ICE June coffee prices still impacted the Kenyan coffee markets, more so to the cooperatives or farmers that have been selling their coffee directly to the buyers. The buyers base their bargain on the ICE markets. The Kenyan farmer constantly faces uncertainty in the coffee market depending on what happens at the New York ICE, despite Kenya producing specialty coffee.